Sunday, April 22, 2012

Calificadoras de riesgo, información muy exótica pero poco útil


Las calificadoras del riesgo soberano de la deuda externa  Moody’s, Standard and Poors y Fitich son reconocidas a nivel mundial por sus evaluaciones, estas evaluaciones son recibidas por el público y en particular por el gobierno con gran expectativa, si el país mejora o empeora su calificación, se realiza un cubrimiento nacional sobre el tema a tal punto que es un logro importante en materia económica o por el contrario si la calificación empeora. Sin embargo si uno se toma el tiempo y analiza estas calificaciones, se encuentra una profunda desvinculación con la realidad, para la muestra: Colombia presenta una calificación de deuda soberana de Baa3 por debajo de la de Francia con una calificación AAA (la menos riesgosa), sin embargo Colombia presenta una deuda externa de aproximadamente 20% de su PIB y Francia una deuda de 182% de su PIB. La gran conclusión es que estas calificadoras no evalúan la realidad de sus evaluados y por tanto no hay nada que celebrar por sus anuncios.


Autor: Humberto Bernal,
Economista,
Colombia presenta a 2012 una calificación de su deuda externa soberana Baa3 según la calificadora de riesgo Moody’s; BBB- según la calificadora Standard and Poor’s y BBB- según la calificadora Fitch. Después de  tres años la calificadora Moody’s incrementó en una posición la calificación de Colombia lo que implica que la deuda externa soberana presenta un menor riesgo de insolvencia, sin embargo el avance durante los últimos 20 años incluido el 2012 no es relevante como se observa en la figura 1, la calificación máxima que Colombia ha logrado es de Baa3 en 1995 y 2011. 

Figura 1. Calificación deuda externa Colombia Moody’s 

1993-2012



Fuente: Moody’s.

Es interesante ubicar a Colombia dentro de un contexto global respecto a su calificación, de un total de 114 economías Colombia se ubica en la mitad del camino, como se observa en la figura 2 el 45.6% de las 114 economías se encuentran ubicadas por debajo o igual a la calificación baa3 (calificación de Colombia), se resalta que hay 9 economías con ingresos medios altos que presentan una calificación superior, dentro de las que se destaca Chile con una calificación de Aa3,   Brasil con Baa2 y Panamá con Baa1, perú Presenta la misma calificación de Colombia. 

Figura 2. Calificación deuda externa Moody’s 

2012






Morado: Menor e igual a Baa3.

Azul: Mayor a Baa3.

Fuente: Moody’s.



Sin embargo estas calificaciones no presentan un criterio de evaluación justo, si uno observa la deuda soberana de las economías con una calificación  AAA (calificación cero riesgo), uno encuentra Italia, Francia y España entre otros, estos países presentan una deuda externa relativamente grande, esta es 108% del PIB, 182% y 154% respectivamente, mientras Colombia y Perú presentan una deuda externa del 22% y 20% respectivamente, por tanto uno puede concluir que la información que suministran estas calificadoras de riesgo no es muy útil para la toma de decisiones sobre el incremento de prestamos externos y la dinámica financiera y presupuestaria de los países. Un estudio similar se realizó para la calificación de S&Ps y Fitich y la conclusión es similar.

Sunday, April 15, 2012

Summits of the Americas, Colombia 2012, great success

Summits of the Americas was a great success, thanks to each country table 1, specially to the United States and its president Barack Hussein Obama for 10 years Visa and Free Trade Agreement.


Table 1. Summits of the Americas, Colombia 2012


Country President or Prime Minister
Antigua y Barbuda Baldwin Spencer
Argentina Cristina Fernández de Kirchner
Barbados Freundel Jerome Stuart
Bélice Dean Oliver Barrow
Bolivia Juan Evo Morales Ayma
Brasil Dilma Vana Rousseff
Canadá Stephen Joseph Harper
Chile Sebastián Piñera Echenique
Colombia (Host) Juan Manuel Santos Calderón
Costa Rica Laura Chinchilla Miranda
Dominica Roosevelt Skerrit
El Salvador Carlos Mauricio Funes Cartagena
Estados Unidos de América Barack Hussein Obama
Grenada Tillman Thomas Joseph
Guatemala Otto Pérez Molina
Guyana Samuel Archibald Anthony Hinds
Haití Michel Martelly
Honduras Porfirio Lobo Sosa
Jamaica Portia Simpson - Miller
México Felipe de Jesús Calderón Hinojosa
Panamá Ricardo Alberto Martinelli Berrocal
Paraguay Fernando Armindo Lugo Médez
Perú Ollanta Moisés Humala Tasso
República Dominicana Leonel Antonio Fernández Reyna
Saint Kitts y Nevis Denzil Llewellyn Douglas
San Vicente y las Granadinas Ralph Everard Gonsalves
Santa Lucía Kenneth Davis Anthony
Surinam Desiré Delano Bouterse
The Bahamas Hubert Ingraham
Trinidad y Tobago Kamla Persad - Bissessar
Uruguay José Alberto Mujica Cordano
Venezuela Nicolás Maduro (Cansiller)

Sunday, April 8, 2012

Who really the actual government is, high position public servants looking for their own private interest instead of social interest, Colombia the other way around


Colombia government through Ecopetrol utilities distribution try cheat us, this note shows who owns Ecopetrol shares, they are people from upper class, middle class and her managers, they are no more of 5 million out of 45 million of people in Colombia, instead government must start to work in a real social solution such as as job centers in each city, new enterprises with collaboration from universities, real infrastructure such as long run metro service and so. Through statistics, government is taking profits and royalties to their private benefit, for instance financial speculation as was broadcast through media, less royalties per barrel as was showed last weekly note, lack of public information about royalties balance (where is this saving?, in Colombia or abroad?, who knows?), moreover  Ecopetrol has taken a cutting job positions behavior since 1992 when there was 10,413 places, there are now just 6,744 places and finally this greedy private interest was expressed through not support to José Antonio Ocampo as candidate to World Bank president position, do not worry Mr Ocampo, lot of Colombians  who care about our future and social welfare support you in this process, instead of few people who for lack of information about who really are colombians, we know you are one of the best economist around world, you have our support, best wishes.


Autor: Humberto Bernal,
Economista,

it can be download in PDF format:

Colombia is called by international media the petroleum star due to lots of petroleum companies are coming to extract this natural resource, by 2011 there were 51 firms and they are still working, most of them come from abroad, they are from Brazil, Canada, China, India, the United Kingdom, the United States, Venezuela and others countries, these companies are getting high profits, according with National Bureau of Statistics for firms (Superintendencia de Sociedades), in the last eleven years most of these firms showed profits of 21% (net utilities divided into total income). As colombian citizen I can say: “the government are doing the right thing if they think in their own private benefit, colombian petrol sector is on sale and  its cost is more misery for their citizens”, this statement is sad but true, it is enough to show official statistics, table 1 shows the distribution of Ecopetrol shares, it is the biggest petroleum firm in Colombia, where poverty GINI index is about 0.56, this firm produced 34.3% of total production in 2011 and she was on the 445th place out of 500 most valuable firms around the world according to Fortune magazine in 2011,  it is important to highlight from this table that 89.9% "belongs to" all colombians and the other 10.1%  was divided into a “fair distribution between citizens” according to government but its is not true, one can see that this 10,1% is divided into pension found for those who has a formal job (moreover people who going to enjoy these resources are those who has a permanent job, much less people), it is right but the idea of a democratic society where everybody enjoy this system is plenty welfare, the reality, that government do not meet, is the majority do not have a stable job and the only thing we can do, unfortunately, it is watching how government divided our main resource into those who already got a well standard of life, moreover government wants to share 10% more of Ecopetrol between same people, what wrong the idea of democratic society has this government.
Table 1. Ecopetrol Owners an its value 2010


Holders
Percentage (%)
Share 
(number of)
Money share value 
(US$billion)
Value in financial statements (balance sheet) 2010 
(US$billion)
State
89.9
36,384,788,817
78.6

Pension found
4.47
1,810,499,700
3.9

Natural person
3.71
1,501,050,593
3.2

Abroad founds and firms
0.25
99,541,909
0.2

Legal person
1.04
420,761,489
0.9

ECP-ADR founds (international founds)
0.63
255,870,080
0.6

Total
100.0
40,472,512,588
87.8
34.3


Source: Ecopetrol and Colombian stock market. 



My complaint is based on official figures from 2012: 12.7 million of colombians who make known their disagreement on their employment status and 2.7 million in unemployment status. The ironic situation is government broadcast that Ecopetrol 2011 profits will be divided into shareholders as a fair distribution of income, table 1 shows this bizarre fact, the few winers are colombians  who are in a fair socioeconomic status including the managers of Ecopetrol who own shares (Joaquín Moreno Uribe 50,000 shares and Mauricio Cardenas Santamaría 2,000. Source: Ecopetrol.), It is right that they own shares, they can but what about the other 40 million of people?.
Ecopetrol as enterprise that looks for high profits are cutting job positions as it is show in table 2. Due to high cost and inefficient labor productivity, Ecopetrol are cutting jobs from 10,413 job position on 1992 to 6,744 position on 2010, form economic efficient view, it is right, but government must have an employment system that take these people into economic activity again but this system is just a dream, there is a Job government department (Ministerio del Trabajo) but there is no results yet, moreover  it looks like a political job employment for those who already have a fair welfare and just want passing time. 



Table 2. Size of Ecopetrol employment

1992-2010



Year
Permanent employment (number of*)
Temporal employment (number of)
Total employment (number of)
    
Year
Permanent employment (number of)
     Temporal (number of)
Total    (number of)
1992
1,505
8,908
10,413

2002
1,072
6,450
7,522
1993
1,405
8,737
10,142

2003
1,152
5,568
6,720
1994
1,427
8,684
10,111

2004


6,027
1995
1,524
8,696
10,220

2005


6,063
1996
1,581
8,424
10,005

2006


5,816
1997
1,681
8,25
9,931

2007


5,887
1998
1,346
7,975
9,321

2008
1,324
5,253
6,577
1999
972
7,427
8,399

2009


6,695
2000
1,071
6,555
7,626

2010


6,744



Source: Ecopetrol and Colombian stock market.
A bizarre petroleum sector. 
As was pointed out above, Ecopetrol is cutting jobs but this firm is not the only one, if one see figure 1, one realize that labor income is just 7.3% of total Petroleum Gross Domestic Product in 2009 when it used to be 29.2% in 1970, a fair argument will point that this sector is intensive in capital and technology gave them a better use of resources, it looks reasonable but the wrong thing is that the social compromise is divided just into wealthier people through high valued contracts and royalties managed under high risk scenarios for those who do not care and those who just look for private benefits, the right behavior is dealt this economic sources under social criteria. 

Figure 1. Labor remuneration in petrol sector as percentage of its GDP
1992-2010
(%)

Source: Bureau os statistics Colombia (DANE).





What society is expected.
First: a real system to create jobs through job offices centers where the main target of workers is to find jobs to those who do not have, these offices must be at main cities and their number according with population, moreover everybody must have the right to get this service. Royalties from petroleum and mining sector can support these offices.
Second: Projects development through universities that are on rule, it means universities that have all its document update,  they  have to create firms with their students and these projects must be supported through royalties form petroleum and mining sector. It is important to highlight that these economic resources are for ALL universities that are on rule, it means not just for those that government has politic interest.
Third: Infrastructure must be replaced if it is old and created if it is needed to bring development. For instance, there is a political issue about Metro line construction in Bogotá and other cities, government should not do take us as fools, the Metro line must be built thinking in the future, if government think in short run plan, citizens will pay the cost in the long run, it means a packed system, the point is people want a big comfortable Metro as Washington or London lines, the financial support come from royalties.
These are just three ideas, there are more  on topics such as sustainable financial parks for everybody where people can enjoy the weekend, cities cleaner (not rubbish-trash) with a efficient  well payed jobs and so. My main concern is that government does  not waste  royalty sources, if there are no ideas to improve social welfare, please, do not speculate or take them for private benefits, just keep them in a saving account that future generations could be find a real social spending. 
By the way, although I do not get an official invitation to Summits of the Americas meeting, as wealthier people has,  coming up this week, I try to write a popular agenda through this media. 
In addition, if government do not give support to our best citizens due to greedy private ambitions, I do as other people broadcast by the media last week,  my best wishes to José Antonio Ocampo applicant for World Bank president job.


Sunday, April 1, 2012

Congratulations!, a hundred billion dollars of Foreign Direct Investment into colombia from 1900 to 2011


Colombia reached a hundred billion of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) stock from 1900 to 2011, moreover there are about 676 multinationals in Colombia with a total of 1,272 affiliates, congratulation!, it is the result of  a democratic society  who understand the meaning of it and is aware to keep and improve it. However, there is work to do still, for instance a strong work on keeping foreign profits in Colombia through knowing foreign business men needs to make Colombia attractive for this increasing outflows foreign profits. FDI should be an issue in Summits of the Americas meeting where presidents should be  aware of pulling up economic growth through high added FDI inflows such as technology affiliates (firms) in the region and better welfare for workers.



Autor: Humberto Bernal,
Economista,

It can be download at:

The Foreign Direct Investment as stock reached a hundred billion of dollars in 2011, yes it is true 100 with nine zeros more, we got a FDI stock of US$100,165,263,000 in 2011, this is the money volume of FDI stoked in Colombia from 1900 to 2011.  This weekly note is  the starter (a very short fragment) of my PhD thesis called FDI in Colombia from 1900 to 2010, the target of this long work, more than four years of hard work getting archives numbers, learning about this theory and making a big effort to understand why the FDI can bring us a fair development, I can say this statement is true but FDI should be tied with social criteria, it means business men can take their profits where they want but they should be aware they live in a global economy, where political world map starts to disappear and pops up a social-political order, there are two main targets should be done under this scenario: progress and human welfare, figure 1 unfortunately shows FDI inflows are lower than FDI outflows profits in Colombia since 2009, therefore there is a hard work to do in keeping foreign profits inside Colombia, I think this issue should be dealt in Summits of the Americas meeting that will be hosted in Cartagena (Colombia).

Colombian FDI inflows and its profits 2000 - 2010

(US$ million)

Source: Central Bank, Colombia.



Many colombians point out that too much FDI into mining and oil extraction sectors could bring us an economic dependence of these natural resource, moreover when they will have gone, we will face an economic crisis, it will be true if we do not use the actual economic source for pushing up industrial and commerce sectors through better infrastructure and education for everybody, until now FDI distribution is balanced as figure 2 shows, roughly 50% - 50%, 50% into valued added sector and 50% into natural extraction resources, but more than reach a million oil barrels per day, Colombia must focus on how we can distribute efficiently the profits of actual 900 thousand of oil barrels per day.  


Figure 2. Colombian FDI Stock by sector as a share of total FDI stock

1979 - 2010
(%)



Source: Central Bank, Colombia.

Colombian FDI as stock keeps its share of 30% of GDP as figure 3 shows, it means there is an important volume of foreign capital which pulls economic growth, therefore there is not room to improvise with short run decisions which are not going  with keeping it into Colombia as above figure 1 shows, making the point Colombia is missing FDI through outflows profits without any central government attention, according with empirical evidence the equilibrium of FDI in a country is between  40%  and 100% of GDP, for instance Netherlands,  and Switzerland showed a percentage of 80% of their GDP in 2010, the United Kingdom showed a percentage of 41%.

Colombian FDI stock as a share of GDP
2000 - 2010
(%)



Source: Central Bank and Bureau of statistics,  Colombia.

If FDI issue is not on the right place with the “right government decisions”, fortunately Colombia counts with a democratic four years system that soon or late will pay attention on this issue. We  do not worry, this democratic period will finish on 2014 and  a fair democratic party will be take place again, hopefully, with more experience that increase the strength of democracy and the end of world terrorism that undermines the FDI.