Venezuela does not face a economic problem through next two hundred of years, she produces 2.5 millions of barrels per day, after this period probably there will be other energy source. Therefore Colombia must have a good economic and politic relation with Venezuela, the other way around it will cost to much to colombians. Colombia will run out of crude oil in the next seven years, after this Venezuela will be our main supplier if we build a good relationship. It must be a colombian national security target in the next years.
Author: Humberto Bernal,
Economist,
e-mail: zhumber@gmail.com
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Colombia has faced an important inflow of venezuelan citizens between 2007-2012. The total inflows of citizens that arrived to Colombia in february of 2011 were 127,453 where 16,618 came from Venezuela, it means from total migrants those who belongs to Venezuela shared with 13.0% of total migrants. These migrants are tourists, relatives of colombians and businessmen who face difficulties in venezuela, most of them come back to Venezuela but others decide stay for long. Venezuelan migrants in Colombia showed an important increase, from 12,551 in 2007 to 19,087 in 2012 as figure 1 shows, it means an annual average growth rate of 8.7%, this fact can be due to political issues and low Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth as figure 1 shows. Nowadays one can meet a venezuelan at school, university or at job and they are welcome to our country.
Colombia has faced an important inflow of venezuelan citizens between 2007-2012. The total inflows of citizens that arrived to Colombia in february of 2011 were 127,453 where 16,618 came from Venezuela, it means from total migrants those who belongs to Venezuela shared with 13.0% of total migrants. These migrants are tourists, relatives of colombians and businessmen who face difficulties in venezuela, most of them come back to Venezuela but others decide stay for long. Venezuelan migrants in Colombia showed an important increase, from 12,551 in 2007 to 19,087 in 2012 as figure 1 shows, it means an annual average growth rate of 8.7%, this fact can be due to political issues and low Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth as figure 1 shows. Nowadays one can meet a venezuelan at school, university or at job and they are welcome to our country.
Figure 1. Inflows migrants from venezuela to Colombia and Venezuela GDP growth
2007 - 2012
*Inflows in february of each year
Source: Bureau of migration Colombia and Venezuela Central Bank.
Through my point of view Colombia could take advantage of it. Venezuelans who arrive to Colombia can be part of our economy activity, for instance in crude oil industry or manufacture industry. In the long run they and venezuelan in their country can bring opportunities to them and colombians. One tends to think when Venezuela runs out of crude oil, their economy and people will face deep crisis due to dependence of it as figure 2 shows, nevertheless what wrong this thought is. According to British Petroleum Review of 2011, Venezuela counts with 211.2 billions of barrels as a reserve what means more of two hundred years of production (200 years!!!), therefore when Venezuela runs out of crude oil, probably the source of energy will be other.
Figure 2. Venezuela exports
2006 - 2011 (%)
Source: Venezuela Central Bank.
Venezuela does not face a unemployment problem, she shows a unemployment rate of 7.8% in 2011 and last five years it has not been more than one digit as figure 3 shows, what luck of venezuelans. In long run Colombia must increase its economic activity with Venezuela, there is a huge mistake if Colombians begins to argue with our most important neighborhood.
Figure 3. Venezuela unemployment
2007 - 2011 (%)
Source: OCEI and José Huerta webpage.
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