Colombian government wants to be part of OECD but society actions says not yet. Colombia is a violent Country with more than 5 million of displaced people and a homicide rate of 31.4 per 100 thousand of inhabitants. Of course, there are Colombians living in municipalities named Genova, Ginevra, Málaga, Milan, Monterrey and San Francisco located in Colombia not in Europe or North America, they are really homonyms, for instance Ginevra (Colombia) faces 338 displaced people between 1998 to 2012, a homicide rate of 24.6, and 23.3% of her population are in poverty. To be part of OECD, colombia society has to work hard instead to show off. To be part of this group means a fair society in Human Rights guarantee and fair income distribution with low unemployment rate. This note also points some mexican indicators that highlight a similar path that Colombia has walked on, unfortunately Mexico can be other Colombia, I point some clue indicators to work on.
Author: Humberto Bernal,
Economist,
e-mail: zhumber@gmail.com
Twitter: Humberto_Bernal
Last week Colombian government broadcast the intention to be part of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) group. To be part of this group requires hard work on socioeconomic indicators such as homicide rate, displaced people, government corruption and dependency of primary products. From my point of view, to be part of this group is just a dream as government broadcast. Of course, government said a realizable dream in short run (next years) and from my point of view is a realizable dream but in long run. To be standing on the ground, there are socioeconomic indicators that do not let get the social assets to be part of this group. The main indicator is displaced persons in Colombia due to internal conflict. Table 1 shows the number of people displaced in municipalities with homonyms names in Europe, for instance the municipality Genova located in the region Quindío in Colombia faced a homicide rate of 82.0 per 100 thousand of people in 2011, a displaced people of 812 since 1998, and 22.3% of population faced lack of primary goods. Of course, these indicators are far way of Genova (Italy) that belongs to OECD. Other municipality is Ginevra (Valle) with a homicide rate of 82.0, displaced people of 338, and poverty UNB rate of 11.4%, of course these indicators are far way of Ginevra (Switzerland) does. There are other municipalities that have poor indicators to ask for Colombia be part of OECD such as Málaga located in Santander-Colombia (not in Spain Europe), Milan in Caquetá-Colombia (not in Italy), Monterrey in Casanare (not in Mexico), San Fransico in Cundinamarca (not in the United States) and Sevilla in Valle (not in Spain). The only similitude between these municipalities in Colombia and OECD members is the name (they are really homonyms).
Table 1. Main indicators for homonyms regions in Colombia
Municipality
|
Region
|
Homicide rate*
|
Internally displaced persons
|
Poverty
UBN**
|
Genova
|
Quindío
|
82.0
|
812
|
22.3
|
Ginevra+
|
Valle
|
24.6
|
338
|
11.4
|
Málaga
|
Santander
|
5.4
|
671
|
14.7
|
Milan
|
Caquetá
|
34.4
|
7,712
|
42.9
|
Monterrey
|
Casanare
|
14.3
|
1,174
|
26.3
|
San Francisco#
|
Cundinamarca (Putumayo)
|
No information
|
69 (209)
|
20.6 (17.9)
|
Sevilla
|
Valle
|
93.0
|
1,893
|
16.1
|
+ in spanish the spelling is Ginebra.
# There are three municipalities named San Francisco in Colombia, table shows two, the other does not have information on displaced people.
Source: Municipality Association (Federación Colombiana de Municipios). Own Calculations Stata 12.1.
Colombia has 5,405,629 displaced people in 2012 due to internal war conflict. Figure 1 shows displaced people by municipality since 1998, the colors point the number of displaced people, for instance there are municipalities that have more than 10,000 displaced people (red color!), the municipality that faces the highest value of displaced people is Buenaventura located in Valle del Cauca (near to Pacific Ocean) with 66,928 cases. There are other municipalities that face close values such as Carmen de Bolivar, Santa Marta and Tierralta, they are located close to Atlantic Ocean.
Figure 1. Internal displaced persons in Colombia 1998-2012
(Number of displaced people)
The conclusion: we are in a country that faces a internal war conflict, we are not in Europe Country where violation Human Rights are punished with jail sentence. Colombian government has to be standing on the ground and work hard in the next years to put the end to this conflict and make sure to guarantee Human Rights to all Colombian citizens.
The main indicators to be part of OECD group
The OECD is an economic group of 34 countries that works on economic indicators that goes with economic development through international trade and fair progress. Figure 2 shows OECD countries by population, the total population is about 1,2 billions of people out of 7 billions in the World.
Figure 2. Population in OECD group
(lMillion of people)
Source: World Bank Data.
The OECD members showed a homicide rate between 0.6 per thousand of inhabitants and 22.7 in 2010, the minimum value was reached by Norway and the maximum value was reached by Mexico. Mexico is a special case due to drug trafficking cartels are taken violence as medium to reach their objectives such as export cocaine to United States and Europe. Mexico faced a homicide rate of 8.1 in 2007 with a declining trend until 2007, after this year trend changed. The band without Mexico is a homicide rate between 0.6 and 5.2, the last figure is faced by Estonia. On the other hand, Colombia faced a homicide rate of 33.4 in 2010 and 31.4 in 2011, before this year Colombia had faced high rates, She is one of most violent countries in the World, she took 16th place out of 207 countries in 2011.
GINI index for OECD countries is between 0.230 and 0.521, the minimum value is showed by Sweden while the maximum value is showed by Chile. Colombia shows a GINI index of 0.539 in 2012, this indicator is hard to reduce in Colombia due to internal war conflict that pushes people from their lands as it was pointed above.
Internally displaced people in OEDC countries is close to null, Turkey and Mexico are the only countries that started to face this social big problem. Until 2010 Turkey had faced 1,201,000 displaced people while Mexico had faced 120,000 displaced people. Displaced people in Mexico could be explained by drug trafficking cartels violence. On the other hand, Colombia has faced 5,405,629 cases of displaced people since 1985 (these numbers are those resisted but they can be more). Colombia is the mayor country that faced displaced people, after Colombia are Iraq, Sudan and Uganda with a band between 1,000,000 and 4,000,000 of displaced people.
The OECD countries face a military spending between 0.5% and 7.4% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2010. The minimum value was faced by Mexico with 0.5% of her GDP and the maximum value was faced by Israel with 7.4% of her GDP. Colombia faced a military spending of 3.8% in 2010 and 4.2% in 2012, this indicator is one that achieves the expectative to be in OECD group from my point of view, although there are few problems with Human Rights inside the military procedures.
The School enrollment tertiary gives information about youth that must be in tertiary education, for instance Mexico faced a rate of 28.0% of people in tertiary education, it means for each 100 of people that must be in tertiary education, there are 28 enrolled. The OECD group showed a band between 28% and 103.1% in 2010, the minimum value was faced by Mexico and the maximum by South Korea. The last country shows a really high rate, it is a case to deep study that can be replicated by other countries. Colombia faced an enrollment rate of 39.1%, unfortunately it is lower than the average figure from OECD countries.
Manufactures export (% of merchandise exports) is an indicator that shows the high value added by a country for World Society. The OECD countries shows a band between 12.7% and 93.3% in 2010, the minimum value was faced by Chile and the maximum value was face by Israel. Colombia had an index of 22.5% in 2010. Chile as Colombia suffer of primary good trade problem (Enclave economies), Chile exports lot of copper and silver while Colombia exports huge volumes of crude oil, coal and ferronickel. Although Chile is working on adding value to these primary commodities to export finished goods but Colombia faced management corruption in royalties uses.
Net migration can measure the desire of be part of birth country. The number of people (net migration) is positive, it means poor desire of be part of the country. For instance, Spain faced an annual net migration of 2,250,005 cases in 2010, it can be explained by her economic crisis and high unemployment rate. The OECD group faced a band between -1,805,238 and 2,250,005 in 2010, the minimum value was faced by Mexico and the maximum by Spain. Colombia faced a net migration of -120,000 in 2010, it means many people found Colombia as a good place to set up a business and family. This indicator gives positive points to Colombia to be part of OECD group due to people find Colombia safer.
Unemployment rate
There is other indicator to take into account, it is unemployment rate but the idea is to calculate the long run unemployment rate to each country in OECD group and Colombia. the World Bank gives information to do it through Long-term unemployment indicator. In Colombia case the long run unemployment rates is 10.0%, it is too high to be in OECD group.
Table 2. Main economic indicator to be part of OECD group
(last information available)
OECD
|
Colombia
|
||||
Indicator
|
Minimum
|
Maximum
|
Average
|
Checklist
|
|
Homicide rate
(100,000 inhabitants)
|
0.6
|
22.7
|
1.7*
|
33.4
|
X
|
GINI Index
(0-1 index)
|
0.230
|
0.521
|
0.333
|
0.539
|
X
|
Internally displaced persons
(number of people)
|
0
|
1,201,000
|
0**
|
5,405,629
|
X
|
Military expenditure
(% of GDP)
|
0.5
|
7.4
|
1.8
|
4.2
|
OK
|
School enrollment, tertiary
(% gross)
|
28%
|
103.1%
|
69.5%
|
39.1%
|
X
|
Manufactures exports
(% of merchandise exports)
|
12.7%
|
93.3%
|
67.4%
|
22.5%
|
X
|
Net migration
(number of people)
|
-1,805,238
|
2,250,005
|
421,467
|
-120,000
|
OK
|
*Without Mexico. Without Mexico and Turkey.
Source: World Bank Data, CIA World Factbook and Colombia Bureau of Statistics.
Source: World Bank Data, CIA World Factbook and Colombia Bureau of Statistics.
Annex: can Mexico be other Colombia?
Through this information one realizes that Mexico is going to Colombia negative path, for instance the number of displaced people showed an increase from few people 2009 to more than 100 thousand in 2010, the school enrollment rate is the lowest in OECD countries as the military spending. Mexico is on critical point, she can face same indicators as Colombia if mexican government does not pay attention. From my point of view, Mexico has to invest in Human Rights guarantee, education and military spending. Moreover, Mexico is facing immigration of people who do not have employment, they come back to home country due to Global Crisis in developed countries, therefore, in my opinion, Mexico has to set up an employment program to reduce her unemployment rate that is about 5.3%, it is fair to point that Mexico had an unemployment rate of 2.5% in 2001, after this year the trend has been positive.
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