Through 709 municipalities out of 1,122 in Colombia in 2010, one finds that cocaine crops eradication increases the poverty in Colombia in 0.97% points per 1.0% more hectares of cocaine crop eradicated. Cocaine crops are located in municipalities with strong poverty condition (lack of fair education, lack of infrastructure, unfair health system and lack of security), population finds this economic activity as medium to get out of this state. This poverty condition can be explained by local government corruption specially in mismanagement in public revenues. Cocaine crops has to be dealt as international monopoly managed by United Nations and through local job opportunities in substitutive crops such as fruits and vegetables production (banana production is a great alternative in Colombia). It is difficult that Colombia achieves a state of peace without an international cooperation in legal production of cocaine. Cocaine crops are spread around whole Colombia as poverty state does also.
Author: Humberto Bernal,
Economist,
e-mail: zhumber@gmail.com
Twitter: Humberto_Bernal
Poverty in Colombia is well registered by many organizations such as World Bank through GINI index and local government agencies such as Bureau of Statistics (DANE) through GINI index and Unsatisfied Basic Needs (UBN). There are many international and local programs working on this issue, for instance Millennium Development Goals through World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank through huge volume of monetary credits. These programs were set up many years ago and results are poor still, of course there advances but no those expected. These poor advances let local government to take rush initiatives such as giving to people free houses!!!, the problem are not houses, the problem is most of people who got these houses do not contribute to society to deserve them, program could had been great if government would had given the house along fair job opportunities to deserve these houses. These rush initiatives deteriorate economic productivity that is a valuable good in these global days.
To complement the proper indicators taken by international and local agencies such improving transport infrastructure; and improving health and education coverture, it is important to work on cocaine production legalization through an international agency monopoly managed by United Nations. The coca crops eradication in Colombia were 44,641.3 hectares in 2010 where the main coca growth took place in municipalities such as Tumaco and Policarpa in the region named Nariño, Puerto Libertador in Córdoba and El Tambo in Cauca as figure 1 shows. In 2011 and 2012 the coca crops eradicated were 34,169.9 and 30,248.4 hectares respectively and the main municipalities were located in the regions such as Nariño, Córdoba, Cauca, Guaviare and Chocó.
Figure 1. Coca crops eradication in Colombia 2010
(hectares)
As one can see, cocaine production is taking whole Colombia but mainly in places where Colombia faces high poverty, Chocó, Guaviare, Córdoba are regions with strong poverty living conditions, Colombia faced 32.7% of total population in poverty according to international measures in 2012. The big issue with coca crops eradication is the impact on families income and basic goods, according to government the cocaine production contributed with 0.4% in colombian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2010 and 0.3% in 2011, families take this crop as an option to go out of poverty state. According to econometric model showed in table 1, the cocaine crops eradication lets an UBN increase in 0.97% points, it means more families in poverty in Colombia or worst situation than before eradication. At the end, Colombian families take cocaine crops as option to live on due to lack of proper government opportunities to go out of this state.
Now, lack of opportunities to go out of poverty is due to government corruption, specially in public revenues management. This corruption can be measured thought low political participation. Figure 2 shows the political participation in the last Mayor elections. Colombia counts with 1,122 municipalities where Mayors are elected and 32 regions where Governors are elected and a Country where the President is elected. This map shows the low participation in municipalities with high cocaine crops, for instance total people who voted in Tumaco was 55% of total population with age to vote in 2011 and the UBN was 48.7%. The econometric model lets getting the follow result: as political participation increases 1.0% points (it means great job about mayors duties or low corruption), then UBN faces an expected reduction in 1.22% points. Moreover, the second equation (2) points a strong relationship between Political Participation, Homicide Rate and Displaced People, for instance as homicide rate increases in 1.0% point, then the Political Participation faces a reduction in 0.01% points and an increase of Displaced People in 1.0%, then the Political Participation faces a reduction in 2.07% points. Therefore, low political participation (poor work of mayors in homicide rate and displaced people) lets a higher UBN.
Figure 2. Political Participation
(% of population who voted in 2011)
Source: Federación Nacional de Municipios Colombia.
Table 1. Impact on Unsatisfied Basic Needs and democratic environment in Colombia in 2010
(Model 3LS)
Variable
|
UBN (1)
|
Political participation (2)
|
Tertiary education
|
-1.07*
|
|
Fiscal grade
|
-0.56*
|
|
Ln(Coca crops eradication)
|
0.97*
|
|
Ln(Economic activity)
|
-2.69*
|
|
Political participation
|
-1.22*
|
|
Homicide rate
|
-0.01*
|
|
Ln(Displaced people)
|
-2.07*
|
|
Constant
|
151.20*
|
79.02*
|
Sample size
|
709
|
709
|
Pro(Chi2)
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
* Significative under Bootstrap (1,500 replications) critical value of 0.05.
Source: Own calculations Stata 12.1.
Annex: Variables meaning
UNB: percentage of families that faced lack of at least a basic good according to international methodology. The information was registered in 2010.
Political participation: percentage of citizens in age to vote that voted in last local elections, it was in 2011. It is expected as this indicator increases the UBN faces a decline.
Tertiary Education: percentage of people who got a tertiary education and live in the municipality. It is expected as this indicator increases the UBN faces a decline.
Fiscal grade: grade according with local government results in 2010. indicator from 0 to 100, as the indicator increases, there are better results. It is expected as this indicator increases the UBN faces a decline.
Coca crops eradication: hectares of coca crops eradicated in 2010. Variable of high interest, as this indicator increases the UBN faces an increase.
Economic activity: indicator that measure the grade of legal economic activity penetration in each municipality (its components are legal taxes payed by legal business), the year taken was 2010. It is expected as this indicator increases the UBN faces a decline.
Homicide rate: murders per 100 thousand of inhabitants in 2010. It is expected as this indicator increases the Political Participation faces a decline.
Displaced people: number of displaced people in 2010 due to internal war conflict. It is expected as this indicator increases the Political Participation faces a decline.
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