Colombian government and many countries such as the United States are spending more economic resources each year to block the coca leaf production, but production is in the market after 40 years still. Moreover, there is a new way to produce coca leaf in Colombia; it is scattering in small areas of coca bushes around whole Colombia, so it is more difficult to detect the crops to eradicate them. I propose to change the traditional strategy against coca market through legalisation under better economic opportunities for coca farmers and better education about coca effects for whole population (producers and consumers); moreover, the production and distribution have to be managed as a monopoly by international organisation that takes into account royalties for countries that produce coca leaf.
Author: Humberto Bernal,
Economist,
e-mail: zhumber@gmail.com
Twitter: Humberto_Bernal
Colombia is one of main suppliers of cocaine in the World along Peru and Bolivia. The total area of coca leaf crops from these three countries was 133.7 thousand of hectares in 2012 that means 408 thousand of tonnes of coca leaves, or 543 tonnes of pure cocaine in 2012. This 543 tonnes of pure coca can be taken as the total supply of pure coca from the World. It is right to point that Colombia is the country that has more harvests of coca leaf through year; Colombia shows in average 4 harvest of coca leaf through the year while Perú and Bolivia have lower productivity; this information takes Colombia as the main supplier of pure coca around the World with 309 tonnes in 2012, Perú with 175 and Bolivia with 59. In Colombia case, revenues from this activity are taken to afford illegal activities such as guerrillas (FARC and ELN), paramilitaries and other groups outside of the Law. Profits from coca production are huge and its production shows Economies of Scale! as my weekly note of 14 of July of 2013 pointed. Moreover, consumption of cocaine in excess bring health problems such as respiratory arrest, heart attacks and loss of control. However, cocaine is addictive, people sniff it, and most of people can drive it.
Colombian government along many countries such as the United States and organisations such as United Nations work hard on reducing the production and consumption of this narcotic. This fight has taken economic resources from other activities such as health, education and infrastructure from many countries and from international organisations. In the case of Colombia and the United States (Plan Colombia, see my weekly note of 4 of March of 2012 for resource from Plan Colombia), these resources reached a total of US$5.2 billion in 2012 prices in 2001 and US$14.4 billions in 2012 as figure 1 shows (blue line). It other terms, these annual resources are 4.4% of Colombia Gross Domestic Product. The uses of these resources in Colombia brought down the pure cocaine production from 695 tonnes in 2001 to 309 in 2012 as figure 1 shows (red line), so they achieved their target. However, the fight against cocaine production has taken more than 40 years (the production for exporting started in 1971 as my weekly note of February 17 of 2013 pointed), and every year this fight demand more money and it is more difficult to eradicate the coca leaves. Moreover, the blood because of this fight is huge, so Colombia has a Homicide Rate of 34 per thousand of inhabitants in 2012 and it was higher before this year!. This note shows that the new way of growing coca leaves is scattering the coca crops in small hectares, so it is difficult to detect them. Therefore, the fight has to be changed through better opportunities for farmers in education, public services such as drinking water and better income; moreover, through legalisation of production and consumption of cocaine under monopoly managed by international agency, and direct education in schools and universities for young where narcotics is the issue.
Figure 1. Defense spending and cocaine production in Colombia 2001-2012
(annual data, US$million in 2012 prices and metric tonnes)
Source: UNODC Colombia and own calculation.
The new way of growing coca leaves in Colombia
The dispersion of coca leaf crops around Colombia has increased since 2001. According to United Nations, the number of municipalities in Colombia that grow coca leaf increased from 164 out of 1,123 in 2001 to 212 out of 1,123 in 2012; moreover, the number of coca leaf crops lower or equal of 3 hectares has increased from 47,884 in 2004 to 52,189 in 2011. The GINI coefficient for coca leaf crops has shown a decline since 2001; it went from 0.806 in 2001 to 0.737 in 2012 as figure 2 shows; it means that there are more municipalities that grow coca leaves and hectares used in each municipality are small and better distributed between municipalities. This information lets conclude that coca leaf crops are spreading around Colombia, and it will be more difficult to eradicate it through direct fight.
Figure 2. GINI coefficient for coca crops in Colombia 2001-2012
(annual data)
Source: UNODC Colombia (UN) and own calculation Stata 12.1.
Figure 3. Municipalities with coca leaf crops in 2001
(% share of total hectares with coca leaf crops)
Total municipalities with coca leaf crops in 2001 = 164
Figure 4. Municipalities with coca leaf crops in 2012
(% share of total hectares with coca leaf crops)
Total municipalities with coca leaf crops in 2012 = 212
Label:
yellow, green and blue: percentage of coca leaf crops in each municipality.
Source: Own calculation with information from UNODC (UN).
How can humanity live with coca?
To live with coca, people such as producers and consumes have to be aware about coca effects, and better public services and better income distribution for frames have to be a global policy in order to reduce the dispersion of coca crops; moreover an international organisation has to manage the production and distribution for consumption of pure cocaine. People have to be aware about coca effects in people health; this information can take the producer out of illegal deals; however, this knowledge does not make sense if coca farmers have a low income. Through an econometric model that takes annual information from municipalities that produce and no produce coca leaves between 2006 and 2011, the result is as economic development (legal economic activity) increases in 1.0% in regions of coca production, the number of hectares of coca leaf per capita shows a reduction of 0.04%; moreover, as social programs through Sisbén methodology increase, these type of hectares per capita show a reduction of 0.16% as table 1 shows. There is other important variable that makes low production of coca leaves, and it is the reduction of displaced people or in other terms the end of internal war in Colombia. The impact of 1.0% of lower people displaced lets getting a reduction of coca hectares per capita in 0.23%. Government can work hard on these variables, and get important results, but the production will be still; therefore, this strategy has to be complemented with legalisation and a monopoly control.
Table 1. Impact on hectare per capita of coca bushes 2006-2011
(annual data, random effects model)
Variable
|
Coefficient
|
| Economic development |
-0.04%
|
| People displaced |
0.23%
|
| Poverty program (Sisbén) |
-0.16%
|
| Number of observations |
905
|
| Number of municipalities |
243
|
Source: UNODC Colombia (UN) and own calculation Stata 12.1.
Bibliography
UNOCD (UN). 2013. Bolivia censo de cultivos de coca.
UNOCD (UN). 2001-2013. Colombia censo y monitoreo de cultivos de coca.
UNOCD (UN). 2001-2013. Colombia Estadísticas municipales censo 31 de diciembre.
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